Back to Changing ParadigmsBy Michal Smith-Mello and Peter Schirmer
From The Context of Change
p. 41, published 1994
Historically, Kentucky's economy has depended heavily on the core industries of mining, agriculture, and manufacturing, each of which is being transformed by a combination of forces, near and far. The larger context of change has shaped the fortunes of these bedrock industries and, in turn, those of citizens and communities who depend upon them for their livelihood. While mining and agriculture remain vital to the economic well-being of the state, trends suggest that both industries face uncertain future prospects. Their contributions to the livelihoods of Kentuckians have waned. Likewise, in spite of emerging strength, manufacturing employment is predicted to decline over the long-term. As a consequence of these anticipated changes, the Commonwealth’s future economic prosperity will hinge on its ability to successfully negotiate a shifting economic landscape, to anticipate and skillfully manage coming changes, as well as those that are already well underway.
In order to shape the best possible future for Kentuckians, numerous untapped resources, including the thousands of workers who need training and education in order to fully participate in the economic future of the state, must be cultivated and nurtured. Possible points of leverage for the state’s future lie in familiar but not yet fully realized arenas. Kentucky’s manufacturing base, for example, has been strengthened in recent years by the expanding presence of the automotive industry, which has historically spawned satellite industries, new products and, importantly, high-wage, high-skills jobs. Coupled with an expanded commitment to research and development, this foundation could enable Kentucky to weather predicted declines in manufacturing employment.
At the same time, Kentucky’s vast natural resources, including coal, oil, natural gas, limestone, and timber, as well as alternative crops, offer immense opportunity for innovation and new products development. Limestone, which is abundant in Kentucky, is, for example, now being used widely in scrubbers. The promise of value-added forest products continues to beckon investors and compel policymakers to act aggressively to capture the full benefit of this plentiful and sustainable natural resource. Emerging biomass technology also raises the possibility of alternative energy sources, and new, more environmentally sound manufacturing processes and products, as well as alternatives to declining crops. Such crops may help illuminate paths of opportunity for Kentucky farmers, who face the almost certain decline of their biggest crop—tobacco. Tourism development also offers the opportunity to tap more of our richest natural resource—the people of Kentucky — and, in the process, bolster the economies of under-developed regions while building a broader appreciation of Kentucky’s beauty, culture and heritage.
Finally, the future prosperity of Kentuckians will depend to a great extent on our ability to accommodate, master and harness rapid-fire changes in technology. These changes will influence virtually every workplace and every worker. A solid foundation of scientific and technological skill and reliable, fast-track mechanisms for identifying and helping meet the needs of business, industry, and workers could enable greater prosperity. Without Information Age prowess, Kentucky’s future will likely yield more of the same persistent poverty that has for too long defined who we are. With it, we can determine who we want to become, and we can capture more of the prosperity that has eluded so many Kentuckians for so long.
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