Sector Changes Assumed under Different Scenarios

Sector

Technical Change Assumed

Policy, Practice Changes Assumed
Transportation 1. Increased fuel efficiency of vehicles.
2. Reduced emissions per mile driven.
3. Changes in fuels used.		 1. Changes in mass transit, assuming major new use in urban areas.
2. Reduced car miles driven per capita.
Households 1. Major increase in lighting, appliance efficiency.
2. Some shift to renewable power to heat and cool homes.
3. Increased energy efficiency of heating and cooling.		 1. Some energy conservation obtained through changes in use behaviors.
Service Sector 1. Total electricity consumption falls substantially thanks to engineering efficiency gains. 1. Total electricity consumption decreases due to consumer taste, marketing changes.
Manufacturing 1. Total power use exhibits a significant drop due to technological changes.
2. Shift from reliance on fossil fuels (other than coal) towards renewables.
3. Chemical industry use of coal, rather than oil or gas, as a feedstock for plastics production rises.		 1. Power use falls somewhat due to efforts to conserve.
Land Use 1. Built Environment required per capita falls substantially overall as the result of technological gains, falling more in denser population areas.
2. Forest lands grow in response.		 1. Built Environment required per capita in the Bluegrass Region falls significantly due to taste changes.
2. Built Environment required per capita in the Eastern Region rises a bit due to new infrastructure.
3. Forest lands change in response.
Solid Waste 1. Volume of packaging on consumer goods falls, reducing solid waste. 1. Total per capita household solid waste generation falls due to new buying habits.
2. Recycling by all sectors rises substantially.