Click chapter title to view in PDF format. You will need Adobe Acrobat reader in order to view files in PDF format. Download Adobe Acrobat Reader now if you do not have it.
Click section title to read introduction.
Click chapter title to view in PDF format. You will need Adobe Acrobat reader in
order to view files in PDF format. Download Adobe Acrobat Reader now if you do not have
it.
On behalf of the Board of Directors and the staff of the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center, I am pleased to present our second biennial trends report, Exploring the Frontier of the Future: How Kentucky Will Live, Learn, and Work. It contains a lively and provocative discussion of issues and trends that will significantly affect Kentucky's future.
Of course, both positive and negative trends are identified in this report, as well as a healthy dose of uncertainty. It has become a cliché in recent years, but bears repeating here: The only certainty about the future is change. Nevertheless, the trends identified by the contributors to this report need to be seriously considered by those interested in the future of our state.
None of these trends is etched into stone. We, the citizens of Kentucky, possess the power to shape the course of our future, and this discussion should inform our efforts to do so. I am reminded of a passage from A Christmas Carol, by Charles Dickens:
Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be, only? . . . Men's courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead . . . But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change.
We believe, as Dickens sought to show us in his timeless story of renewal and reversal of fortunes, that we indeed can affect the course of our state's future. Moreover, we believe that policymakers and citizens alike can use this report to help chart a path toward a more prosperous and more enlightened future. The key to Kentucky's future lies in our ability to embrace change while respecting our traditions and our history.
Dr. Paul B. Cook
Chair of the Board
By James Klotter
Kentucky Historical Society
In the twenty-fourth century B.C., a writer introduced his work with the words, "Teach him what has been said in the past . . . for there is none born wise." In our era of such rapid change, almost daily, some question the need to look at a past moving so rapidly behind us. Others argue that we must only look forward, not at what has gone on before us. Yet, in truth, the need to study the past as we look to the future is greater than ever before.
One of the great constants in history has been change, of some sort, in every generation. Many ages try to avoid dealing with the transformation all around them; others try to adjust but operate in a historical vacuum. Those who do ignore history function without benefit of context. They do not understand how others before them adapted to change—failed to do so—and all they can do is to improvise, needlessly, over and over again, amid a series of crises. Reacting without perspective, they resemble those in Greek mythology who drank from the river Lethe in Hades. Those who sipped from the stream lost their memory and became endless wanderers, without purpose, without history, without direction. The Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center and those interested in Kentucky's future are seeking to make certain that future generations never drink from those waters.
At the same time, slavish devotion to the past is as dangerous as too little. Looking only backward, avoiding the need to confront and shape change, has been a debilitating trend at different times in Kentucky history. The key, then, is to identify what parts of the present and past to leave behind and what aspects to take forward into new eras. It is important not only to ask questions, but to understand what questions must be asked. Contributors to this biennial trends report not only identify current trends and place them in historical context, they also suggest what elements will most influence the Kentucky of the 21st century. They seek answers to the right questions.
Looking back over the 19th and 20th centuries, historians have noted a depressing trend, for the words spoken and the issues defined seem to be repeated from decade to decade. A public figure telling an audience that Kentucky needs better roads, more jobs, and more funds for education, could be found whether that audience arrived by horse-drawn carriage or by airplane. For example, an 1884 writer concluded that "The educational problem is by far the most serious of all the difficulties before this state." Over six decades later, a study emphasized the, "Amazingly high degree of correlation between what a state invests in education and the standard of living of its people." Some 30 years after that an ex-governor declared, "You can't have a progressive state without an adequate educational system."
On issue after issue, year after year, words were heard calling for change. What is the role of government in the state? What about gender and racial equality? Opportunities for young people? Out-of-state ownership of vital industries? And on and on. Moreover, Kentuckians spoke about what might be called the soul of the state. How can we keep that which gives us a sense of place, a personality, a uniqueness? How can we make certain we think locally and globally? How can we ensure we are both history-minded and future-minded? Governor Bert Combs, in his last speech as chief executive, spoke for that concern when he concluded, in 1963, "These have been years of great change in the world and in our state . . . Yet . . . it is the spirit that survives, and the spirit of Kentucky is strong. We may change . . . but the spirit of Kentucky endures." Barry Bingham, Sr., spoke to those same desires for both change and continuity when he explained what his hometown sought, which was, in a sense, what Kentucky desired as well: "What we want is a modern city that still remembers the past, as old bricks remember the sun of many summers and the soft rains of a hundred autumns. That is what gives them character and beauty." Kentuckians seek to build their future on such solid foundations.
Can we? Looking at past studies and recommendations for change sometimes does not provide a hopeful answer. At the end of World War II, for instance, three different book-length works offered blueprints for Kentucky's next half-century. They called for a new constitution, higher teachers' salaries, better access to medical care, more environmental controls, a higher minimum wage, greater emphasis on historical and tourist site development, and further economic diversity, among other things. As one reads these words now, many of the suggestions still address our current needs.
Yet on the other hand, reviewing past decades also provides hope for the future; historical study shows that individuals can make a difference, and that major change has taken place in many arenas. To name only a few examples, Kentuckians of 1900 lived in a racially segregated society, with women in a second-class status, by law; most lived in a world without electricity or security for the aged, a place of poor health care and shorter lives, a neighborhood of limited transportation, geography, and communication.
As the children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren of those Kentuckians, we often think, as we look to the future, that no other generation has had to deal with change in the magnitude that we now face. In many ways, that is correct. However, each generation has faced its own circumstances and has experienced transformation as a result. For example, that generation of 1900 soon saw humans fly in heavier-than-air machines for the first time; people no longer were bound to the Earth, a huge mental jump for them to make. The generation of World War II had to face great destruction and death. The post World War II generation has witnessed different types of change: trips that previously took months now take a day; information that would take weeks or days to be assembled and disseminated now emanates in minutes or hours. The state moved from an agricultural economy to a more diversified one, and became statistically more urban than rural. At the same time poverty, inequality, and other issues continued. In short, each Kentucky generation has faced challenges and change, perhaps as great to them as those in the 21st century will be to another generation.
A participant in another place told of the spirit that Governor Combs spoke about, a spirit present in Kentucky as it moved toward statehood over two centuries ago. After a frontier battle, one of the participants wrote, "On the morrow we shall bury them. We shall weep for them, as we have for all who have died, but we shall go on living, and one day we shall overcome this perilous wilderness."
With that attitude and will, early Kentuckians did persevere and succeed. Kentucky's present generation faces its own perils, and, like that earlier one, its own promises as well. Physical frontiers, such as space, may still exist, but the primary frontiers to be conquered now are more those of technology and of the mind. Yet that same frontier spirit can prevail, with planning, with leadership, with long-term thinking.
Over a half-century ago, one futurist study for the Commonwealth proclaimed, "We are at the end of an epoch . . . Kentucky's true greatness lies ahead." If we repeat those words now, the possibility of making them come true is much greater now than before. This trends report allows us to plan for future epochs, as it helps us realize also that "there is none born wise."
Introduction by Lou DeLuca
Education, Arts & Humanities Council
The poet Maya Angelou once said that all people are linked by the dream of a white picket fence. She explained that we all desire satisfying work, a healthy family, and a house, yard and flowers surrounded by a white picket fence. The fence borders a tree-lined street with a variety of houses and fences. Two or three blocks away is a major thoroughfare where we can ride a bus or drive our car past the neighborhood school and convenience center into a busy and prosperous downtown.
Just as we yearn for each picket fence to have a fresh coat of white paint, we want our neighborhood and city centers to be well designed and enjoyable. We want downtown to have a mix of special stores, banks, theaters, housing, offices, hospitals, libraries, and restaurants. We want this living center to exhibit the history of the community in its businesses, buildings, monuments, festivals, parades and parks. While we are proud of our efficient new shopping malls on the edge of town, we know they are not a substitute for the downtown heart of the community.
The phrase "quality of life" is being used by more people to describe a desirable community, and in the future quality of life will continue to gain credence in more segments of society. Decisions about business location and expansion will consider small towns as well as larger cities for their quality of life. Young professionals looking to relocate and take new jobs will also review one-by-one such aspects of quality as housing, schools, medical services, historic buildings and sites, law enforcement, libraries, transportation, shops, festivals, sports, arts and entertainment, parks, and museums.
On the surface, the combination of well-cared-for neighborhoods and schools, shiny shopping malls, active theaters and museums, and a vibrant downtown center create the image of a high quality of life within the community. A look beneath the surface, however, reveals the need for critical ingredients such as diverse economic and educational opportunities, concern for good design, respect for history, accessible cultural resources, a plan/vision for the future, strong families, and broad citizen participation in community leadership.
What are the trends that impact our quality of life? Certainly, there are basic needs, like housing, health care, safety, dignity, and strong families. Trends in these areas are examined in this section by: F. Lynn Luallen, Housing Trends; Forrest Calico, The View from the Heart of the Health Care Revolution; John Curra, The Contours of Crime; Saundra Ardrey, Kentucky and the State of Human Rights; and Stephan Wilson, Families and Children. Another basic need that affects our quality of life is a job paying adequate wages, something a large segment of our population obviously lacks, as highlighted by Miriam Fordham and Dan Jacovitch in their chapter, Poverty in Kentucky. There is clearly a need for broad access to lifelong education and training to maintain and improve personal knowledge and income.
Another important trend is the expanding recognition of the importance of heritage and history to the lives of citizens within communities, and to tourists from outside the community. Well built and historically significant buildings are being reused for housing and commercial developments because, in addition to saving resources, they preserve the heritage of a community and provide a tourist attraction.
Graham Rowles and John Watkins describe the trend toward an older population and longer retirements in their chapter, Growing Old in Kentucky in the Approaching Age of Age. The aging of the population provides a growing audience with interest in heritage, history, arts, and crafts. A companion trend has been the out-migration from Kentucky of a younger, educated population looking for a "better life." Perhaps the most interesting new trend is the movement of these same young people, as well as many older professionals, back from large cities to smaller communities in order to improve their quality of life, as discussed by Michael Price in Migration in Kentucky. These educated citizens will demand that their communities develop their local museums, housing options, historic buildings, public libraries, arts performances, and downtown design in order to meet their standards of quality.
Increased access to lifelong education, heritage, arts, and humanities will also be achieved through easily accessible "virtual universities," on-line public libraries, interactive local history museums, and arts performances in the workplace. Equally important will be the trend toward "one stop shopping" which results from the increased demands on family time and increased hours devoted to work. An example is the packaging and marketing of convenient parking and dining as part of an evening out at the theater. Likewise, a community that wants to attract tourists interested in heritage and arts will package those attractions with lodging, dining and shopping.
The desire for an improved quality of life is evidenced in the Kentucky Strategic Plan for Economic Development which calls for government to "promote and develop Kentucky's cultural and historical assets as an economic tool because Kentucky has a rich culture and history which help define the Commonwealth's identity and quality of life."
As communities see the need to develop their cultural assets, they will include cultural planning and development in their community economic/tourism development plan. The trend toward collaborative economic and cultural planning will have an impact on local communities as well as on state government. A good example is Governor Patton's announcement of Renaissance Kentucky, a program which seeks to improve Kentucky downtowns, large and small, by linking economic development with housing, tourism, infrastructure, urban design, and cultural development. Also recognizing this need, the Kentucky Education, Arts & Humanities Cabinet and its 13 member agencies launched a program in 1995 called the Cultural Economics Initiative. This program provided a small grant and technical assistance to 30 Kentucky communities to help them inventory and analyze their cultural/historic resources and integrate them into a larger economic development plan.
Community planning for the development of cultural assets as economic tools is of increasing importance because of other identified trends. Decreasing government and philanthropic funding for cultural institutions is creating a need for more earned income to sustain nonprofits, and more business sponsorship and marketing of events which provide exposure and good will such as education and community service. With the need to broaden the audience will come the need to offer audience-driven programming and "info-tainment," thereby requiring cultural institutions to adjust to entertaining as well as conveying content.
The education, arts and humanities community attempts to interpret the past and look to the future. As the level and accessibility of distance educational and cultural offerings increase, there will be a demand for an enhanced quality of life-the building of a community white picket fence-through more locally planned and produced education, arts, heritage, environmental, and humanities programs.
In this section:
In this section of our report, we turn to the emerging culture of learning and its impact on individuals and institutions in our society. An intensifying demand for highly skilled workers and a widening earnings differential linked to education are compelling broad societal change. More and more individuals are pursuing education and training beyond high school in response to the demands of a changed economic context. At the same time, these new demands are challenging institutions to provide students with a broader, richer, more relevant educational foundation on which to build a lifetime of learning. To do so, they must redefine institutional priorities and restructure systems that no longer efficiently and effectively serve students and citizens.
Here, Kentuckians are challenged to think back to our recent past and imagine what we might have hoped to achieve in the realm of education in the closing years of the 20th century. This exercise reminds us of what remarkable, previously unanticipated progress we have made in a relatively short time. It also serves to demonstrate what we can achieve in Kentucky when we muster the will to change for the better. As we approach the 21st century, the Commonwealth of Kentucky has become the preeminent national model for systemic school reform, a seemingly unimaginable scenario just a few short years ago. Now, higher education reform has ascended to the top of the educational agenda in Kentucky, and substantive responses are expected to follow in the years ahead.
Mounting evidence also suggests that the people of Kentucky, regardless of age, are responding to the call for individual change, applying their extraordinary work ethic to the challenge of learning and becoming fuller participants in a marketplace that demands high skills in return for access to prosperity. Gradually, the sheer tenacity and the unsung ingenuity that have enabled many to carve something out of nothing in economically depressed regions of the state is being transformed into a desire to learn and to expand personal possibilities. One by one, individuals, schools, colleges, and communities are shaping a new identity for Kentucky, one that will no longer be defined by poverty and undereducation. Collectively, they are building a new legacy, one that will relegate "the educational wasteland of the past" to the margins of history.
In this section, Dan Black, Kermit Daniel and Seth Sanders explore the relationship of earnings opportunities for high school graduates relative to nongraduates and their impact on high school dropout rates. Specifically, they examine the experiences of Pike County, Kentucky, during the coal boom of the 1970s. Their conclusions underscore the importance of tangible economic incentives for educational attainment, which have diminished for high school graduates in recent years, and of educational content that is closely linked to workplace demands.
Robert Sexton and Stephen K. Clements review Kentucky's progress in school reform and the challenges that remain. While the Commonwealth has made tremendous progress, the depths of change, they suggest, have yet to be plumbed. In the coming months and years, education policymakers must contend with, among other issues, the perplexing problem of shaping reliable tools of assessment; the imperative of elevating both the quality of instruction and standards for achievement; and demographic shifts that will influence the population of teachers and students.
Michal Smith-Mello discusses trends that are exerting pressure on the higher education community. Like their counterparts around the nation, Kentucky's publicly financed institutions of higher education face an almost certain era of restructuring and change. Public concerns about cost and quality have placed higher education under unprecedented scrutiny that is unlikely to abate. Neither are the underlying causes of increased costs to students. As a consequence, policymakers and the higher education community face a difficult reckoning.
In the final essay in this section, Stephan Goetz examines the forces influencing workforce training in today's economy. The rising demand for skilled technical workers who are oriented to post-Taylorist or "high performance" ways of working underscores the need to align education standards with the new demands of the work world. Kentucky's efforts to strengthen this link are well underway, but its challenge is complicated by the need to train and retrain an aging workforce, engender a culture of learning in an undereducated population, and ensure returns to investment in job training in rural areas where undercapitalized, low-wage firms dominate.
In sum, these essays underscore the imperative of achieving institutional excellence that will link educational priorities with the real world of work and accommodate the changing needs of citizens and enterprises throughout the Commonwealth. More than ever before, our economic future depends upon the commitment and the tenacity we bring to this immense challenge. As our recent past has shown, the future will be what we determine to make it now. Both our remarkable progress and the sheer will of the people of this state suggest every reason to be hopeful about what lies ahead for education in the Commonwealth.
In this section:
Around the beginning of the 20th century, the U.S. economy was undergoing a significant transformation. As industrial technology such as the electric dynamo (which had been invented about 30 years earlier) reached maturity, huge electric generators were illuminating cities at night and running heavy equipment in factories while typewriters, addressing machines, Dictaphones, mimeograph machines and other equipment were appearing in offices for the first time. Yet productivity growth was sluggish, manufacturing wages were stagnant, capitalists-not workers-were taking an increasing share of total income, and the wage gap was widening between education "haves" and "have nots." What happened next is remarkable. Manufacturers introduced countless products that saved time, increased mobility, and raised the standard of living. Prices were low enough to make these products available to the vast majority of Americans, jobs were plentiful (with the notable exception of the Great Depression), and wage differences between workers at different education levels narrowed or stayed the same.
At the end of the 20th century we find ourselves in a situation remarkably similar to that of our compatriots 100 years ago. The computer has been around for at least 40 years and the microprocessor-the "computer within a computer"-for 25 years, and we are only beginning to realize their potential applications. Robots and computers have found practical applications in the factory; fax machines, pagers, and PCs (personal computers) have been in wide use for at least a decade. But productivity growth has been very slow since the 1970s, and far below the standard for most of the century. Labor's share of national income is falling, and the wage gap between education "haves" and "have nots" is widening.
Will the coming decades mirror the growth and prosperity of the 20th century? Futurist David Pearce Snyder thinks so. Citing a Stanford University report entitled Computer and Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox in a Not Too Distant Mirror, Pearce notes that in the past, new technologies have not spurred immediate economic growth, but have, over the long run, helped bring tremendous increases in productivity, wages, and the standard of living. Snyder's conclusion: "By 2010 to 2015, the United States will become a mature information-intensive economy and surpass the levels of general prosperity and upward mobility experienced during the 1950s and 1960s . . . The new integrated information technology . . . is about to avalanche into all of our homes and workplaces, enriching and complicating daily life for everybody."1 Others are equally optimistic. The Wall Street Journal: "Changes in technology, trade and education would boost the fortunes of most Americans . . . Broader computer use would make workers more productive, more in demand and able to command higher salaries. And growing college enrollment would shrink the gap between the wealthy and middle classes."2 The Economist: Information technology will cause "enormous investment and growth opportunities for the economy as a whole" and will create more jobs than it destroys.3 Business Week: "Today's high-tech productivity bonanza will have a double-barreled impact on living standards . . . When the payoff comes, the wait will have been more than worth it."4
On the other hand, different outcomes are possible, too. Jeremy Rifkin argues in his widely read book, The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era, that millions will be out of work and unemployment will "climb steadily and inexorably over the next four decades."5 In JobShift: How to Prosper in a Workplace Without Jobs, noted management consultant William Bridges writes that plenty of work will remain, but the thing we in the industrialized world call a "job" will disappear.6 Amidst the debate, some areas of agreement appear. Common to all points of view is the belief that computers and other information and communications technology will cause a fundamental restructuring of not just the economy, but our way of life. Second, most believe that the next several years, at the very least, may be uncertain, uncomfortable, even tumultuous, as the economy adopts new technologies and new business practices. Third, there is at least a hint of optimism in most predictions, even among people who believe job loss is likely. Rifkin himself holds the hope that all people will eventually share in the benefits of the digital age, with less time spent at work and more on community development and other projects outside the market economy.
Many of these themes are reflected in the following chapters. Stephan Goetz and Peter Schirmer begin with a broad overview in two chapters which discuss changes in the state's industries and occupations, particularly with an eye on the effects of technological advancement. They also raise some of the issues related to our present economic transformation: stagnant manufacturing wages, corporate restructuring and downsizing, and a widening wage gap between high- and low-skill workers. Next are closer examinations of two important Kentucky industries-coal and tobacco. Gerald Weisenfluh, James Cobb, John Ferm, and Carol Ruthven see the potential for new market opportunities for coal, but new processing techniques and a better understanding of Kentucky's coal resources will be necessary before we can take advantage of these new opportunities. Will Snell predicts that while the structure of tobacco farming will change, tobacco will continue to be a viable economic sector as a result of growing international markets combined with a domestic market which is only declining gradually.
Has economic change wrought uncertainty? Michal Smith-Mello sees the social contract between employer and employee becoming far less favorable for workers, creating income inequities, critical gaps in health and retirement provisions, and, some argue, structural unemployment. Amitabh Chandra reports that income inequality has worsened, and this trend is more severe in Kentucky than in the rest of the nation. Possible explanations include demographic trends, the decline in unionization, and technological progress, which rewards highly skilled labor and places abundant low-skill labor at a comparative disadvantage in the global economy.
At the same time, though, tremendous new economic opportunities are emerging. Dick Dedic identifies five technology product areas, or areas for applied scientific research, which have the most potential for innovation and expansion within Kentucky: telecommunications, life science technology, biotechnology, material design, and environmental remediation. Chris Sauer notes that Kentucky has benefited from foreign investment in the state, particularly by Japanese firms. Moreover, global trade is growing, bringing with it new challenges, of course, but also offering new markets for a variety of Kentucky products. With regard to agricultural exports, Michael Reed believes that Kentucky is well positioned to take advantage of increased trade opportunities for raw and semiprocessed products. But the real growth is in value-added, processed products, and the food processing industry in Kentucky is not fully developed.
This section concludes with two chapters on the infrastructure that forms the foundation of the economy. Ted Grossardt sees the dispersion of manufacturing and service industries as a major issue affecting our transportation system. Nonmetropolitan transportation is becoming more important, and transportation, like virtually everything else, will be affected by advancing information technologies. Doug Robinson examines the possible effects of information technology in closer detail. Access to the information network, privacy, security and computer literacy bring new challenges to the public and private sectors. Indeed, information technology may bring fundamental changes to our social fabric. It certainly will affect the economy.
In this section:
Conventional wisdom long held that governments which take a strong stand on issues of environmental protection run the risk of inhibiting development and income growth. This assumption still surfaces as the basis for political action in spite of the strong environmental commitment a significant majority of citizens consistently express. It rests on the premise that strict environmental standards exact a cost borne by enterprises and, in turn, by their employees, their families, and their communities. But research increasingly refutes conventional wisdom. Indeed, a clear correlation between strong regulatory environments and income growth has been found at the state level in a number of studies, findings which recommend a new paradigm for economic development, one that systematically supports and advances environmental quality. Such a paradigm underscores the importance of the work presented here, that of tracking our environmental progress and anticipating the stresses that could adversely affect environmental health and, in turn, our economic vitality in the years to come.
The good news is that environmental quality is steadily improving in Kentucky. As Leslie Cole details in Kentucky's Environment, we continue to show signs of recovery and the restoration of environmental health, largely due to regulatory requirements imposed on municipalities, businesses, and industries over the past two decades. These rules, along with billions of dollars in private and public sector investments, have resulted in cleaner air, water, and landscapes across the state. At the same time, our economy has continued to expand. But much more remains to be done to ensure a safe and healthy environment for future generations of Kentuckians, one that will enable, rather than inhibit, prosperity.
In Kentucky's Economic Trends and Environmental Futures, Peter Meyer further illustrates the inextricable link between Kentucky's economy and its environment. As Dr. Meyer's projections show, the economic development policies we adopt today will affect the quality of our environmental assets tomorrow. Forward-looking legislation and policy are dependent upon information about the effects of different mixes of the pursuit of economic development and the promotion of environmental protection in Kentucky. Because the choices before us involve tough decisions, policymakers must be provided with adequate information about projected outcomes of the choices they confront.
Indeed, as Kentucky's economy grows, measuring environmental quality will become increasingly important to our efforts to ensure its protection. The problem is not one of tradeoffs between the environment and the economy, but rather the development of policies and programs and private sector practices that will protect the environment in order to permit more economic development. As Dr. Meyer illustrates, inattention to environmental issues will almost certainly adversely affect our development options.
As we noted in our first biennial trends report, The Context of Change, the systematic collection, management, evaluation, and reporting of data that enables effective long-range environmental planning is critical. With such information, policymakers, regulators, and the regulated community can more effectively target investments, creating a positive ripple effect throughout our economy-lower taxes for citizens and more public and private resources for investment in future growth. In short, knowledge is key to our ability to achieve environmental health and preserve the immense beauty of this state, assets which are irreplaceable and essential to the goal of sustainable development.
In this section:
Although the trends examined in this report will surely affect the way we work, the way we learn, and the way we live, they are not forces entirely beyond our control. We can strengthen or accelerate those trends that enrich our lives and work to change those that do not. Even when we cannot affect a trend directly, we can still respond to it in ways that will maximize benefits and minimize harm. No matter the trend or its effects or our control over it, action is essential. Timely and prescient action will help us create a brighter future for ourselves, our families, our communities. We must act as private individuals, of course, but cooperation and collaboration are also essential. Thus we conclude this trends report with a discussion of government and civic participation.
William Hoyt compares Kentucky's taxes to those of other states and examines trends in Kentucky taxation. He finds that Kentucky's sales tax revenue has failed to keep pace with other revenue sources and has led to an increased reliance on the individual income tax for general fund dollars. By broadening the sales tax base and lowering the rate, Kentucky could create a more stable and efficient tax system. In the next chapter, Peter Schirmer, Michael Childress and Charles Nett look at how the slow growth of Kentucky's revenue may affect future budgets, particularly when combined with the impacts of various demographic, social and economic trends discussed elsewhere in this report. In order to maintain the present level of services, Kentucky's spending would have to grow more quickly than revenue is expected to grow under the current tax system. As spending for corrections and health and human services continues to take a bigger slice of the budgetary pie, the share of dollars left over for higher education and numerous other functions is shrinking. Finally, Paul Blanchard examines trends in citizen participation-the most fundamental element of democratic government. Voter turnout is low everywhere, but even lower in Kentucky. Yet voting is not the sole means of public action; many non-voters are very active in their communities, through church groups, school committees and other organizations. Kentuckians may be more active in their communities than people elsewhere, and groups like the Mountain Association for Community Economic Development are working to strengthen these important community-level associations.
Government and civic participation, like everything else, will be affected by advancing technology. In fact, government, particularly at the federal level, has been a leader in providing copious information on the Internet, on CD-ROM, by fax and by phone. The next major step is to allow two-way transfers of information, which would enable citizens to do things like register an automobile, receive licenses and permits, and pay taxes and fees. Ultimately, improved communications technology should enable government to be more efficient, to be more responsive, and to accommodate the unique needs of citizens. Links between different groups may be forged and strengthened as a result of better communications, and organizations in one part of the state will be able to learn what organizations in another part of the state, like the Owsley County Action Team discussed in Paul Blanchard's chapter, are doing to strengthen their communities.
Still, people-not technology-are the building blocks of effective government and healthy public life. And trust is the cement that holds people together. In a recent survey, more than half of Kentuckians said they usually can trust people, compared to less than 40 percent nationally. More than half of Kentuckians also said they have volunteered time for civic, community or charitable activities within the past year. It is this "social capital" which will enable us to seek solutions to our most pressing problems and to respond quickly and intelligently to the important trends affecting our lives. The chapters from William Hoyt and Peter Schirmer, et al., make it clear that government alone cannot pay for all the things we need to do together. But when government works alongside non-profits, school councils, community action groups and other organizations, they provide an essential public arena in which we can take control of the trends affecting our lives, in which we can take action.
In this section:
