From Foresight, Vol. 7, No. 1
published 2000
Perhaps you’ve seen or heard about the numbers: 60,000 more Kentucky college and university students by the year 2014, 80,000 more by 2020. Big numbers. Very big numbers-especially for a small, slowly growing state that has fewer than 160,600 undergraduates now in public colleges and universities. Articles and columns in newspapers routinely cite these figures. So do the governor and Kentucky’s top postsecondary education officials. What do they mean? Where did they come from?
The Kentucky Postsecondary Education Improvement Act of 1997, known as House Bill 1, says, among many other things, that by 2020, the Commonwealth will deliver “its educational services to citizens in quantities . . . comparable to the national average.” What might that quantity be in 2020?
The Kentucky Council on Postsecondary Education asked the RAND Corporation, a Santa Monica, California, research company that has done similar studies elsewhere. Using RAND’s estimate, the Council has projected that by 2020 the total will be in the neighborhood of 240,600 undergraduate students.
RAND has developed a model based on various data, trends, and assumptions that produced an estimate of the increase in undergraduates required to reach the goal in the reform legislation. That goal has struck some as modest because it is the national average-and no more-for college-going rates. But as the RAND results make clear, that average is well above where Kentucky is. It’s an ambitious reach given our spotty record of high school graduates’ enrolling in, staying in, and graduating from colleges and universities.
Nationally, nearly two thirds of high school graduates go on to some form of advanced education; in Kentucky, approximately half do. In the country overall, half of those who enroll graduate within five years; in Kentucky, little more than a third graduate—in six years.
If, as planned, Kentucky adds significantly to its student population, where would the growth occur? How would it be distributed among our array of institutions? Current enrollment trends suggest that initially, at least, much of it would be at Kentucky’s six comprehensive universities: Eastern, Kentucky State, Morehead State, Murray State, Northern, and Western. The rest would be divided among the University of Kentucky, the University of Louisville, and the community and technical colleges.
But future attendance patterns should be different. Apart from imponderables such as war or a weak economy, those patterns will reflect any changes in policy intended to guide students-depending on their desires, needs, and preparation-to one type of institution or another. What will influence students’ decisions? Factors include admissions standards, tuition and fees, financial aid, convenience, programs of study, qualifications needed for intended occupations, and other considerations.
Chief among those other factors is an institution’s mission. Missions are becoming more clearly defined and focused as postsecondary education is reformed. Recent surges in applications notwithstanding, UK and UofL might add relatively few undergraduates as they strive to become top research universities and emphasize graduate studies. The community and technical colleges eventually are expected to grow rapidly-they are the gateways for, among others, students who are not as well prepared or as affluent as the likeliest prospects for advanced education. By developing distinctive programs to differentiate themselves from one another, the comprehensive universities could draw more students beyond their immediate regions and even from outside the Commonwealth.
A portion of the increase in students probably will go to the independent colleges and universities sprinkled all over Kentucky. The amount will depend, in large part, on those institutions’ unused capacity and any additional incentives—such as financial aid, public or private—that draw students to them.
Where would all of these additional students come from? Many could-and must-come from underserved populations. They include youths who have decided, often incorrectly, that college is not an option for them; working parents, especially those in rural areas, who do not have the time or inclination to commute to colleges or universities; and adults, working or not, who must first improve their reading and writing skills.
The Kentucky Commonwealth Virtual University, which has begun offering courses over the Internet, provides what it calls “anywhere, any time” education to anyone who can get to a computer—at home, in public libraries, in workplaces, or even National Guard armories.
As jobholders and job seekers increasingly realize, the best hope for staying employed or finding a more satisfying position is lifelong education—going back to college from time to time to acquire needed skills or earn required credentials. “Educational attainment largely determines income . . . income largely determines living standards,” concludes a recent issue of Postsecondary Education Opportunity, published by the Center for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. Income for both individuals and households rises significantly, and sometimes dramatically, as levels of education rise. High school graduates, for example, typically are paid half of what four-year college graduates make. Those who fail to complete high school should expect notably less than those who do.
Enrolling more students is not the only way to raise the number in colleges and universities. Persuading more to stay—and to earn diplomas, certificates, and degrees—is another and at least as important. With additional encouragement and support, students might spend fewer years than many typically do now to obtain their credentials. Again, the institutions can promote these happy results by making education more accessible and convenient. Adult students, in particular, might appreciate courses offered electronically by KCVU (television, the Internet).
Increasing enrollment dramatically will cost money—lots of money, but perhaps no more than would be expected. However, changes in the funding approach, including greater stress on cooperation among institutions and on using dollars, buildings, technology—and faculty—ever more wisely, are intended to promote more efficiency and effectiveness.
Sharply increasing the number and proportion of Kentuckians who go to college-whether young people attending full time or adults going part time, whether in the classroom or over the Net-is a very big job. But it must be accomplished if reform goals are to be met and the Commonwealth is to successfully achieve a higher standard of living for its citizens
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Mr. Graves is a senior associate with the Council on Postsecondary Education. Return to text.