By Amy Watts
From Foresight, Vol. 9, No. 2
published 2002
The Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center has released the fourth in its Visioning Kentucky’s Future series of reports, Measures and Milestones 2002. This biennial assessment of the Commonwealth’s progress toward realization of a preferred vision for the future of the state provides measurements of the state’s progress over time on benchmarks for 26 goals, often comparing state data with that for the nation or other states. The report also contains the results of a recent public opinion survey that asked Kentuckians to assess the state’s progress on each goal and identify the least and most important goals for the future. The third of these statewide polls, the report tracks changes, as well as constants, in citizen opinion about progress we are making and priorities we set.
In general, Kentuckians believe the state is making progress toward most of the 26 long-term goals. In previous years, citizens saw the state as “losing ground” on at least 5 of the goals. The survey asks respondents to choose from three possible responses for each goal: making progress, standing still, or losing ground. For the first time, only three goals fell into the “losing ground” range of the assessment: (1) provide access to affordable, high-quality health care for all; (2) end poverty and alleviate its consequences; and (3) establish a fair, competitive and responsible fiscal, tax, and regulatory structure. Citizens have assessed these three goals, each of which represents persistent structural issues, as “losing ground” on all three public opinion surveys.
Increased optimism, however, was also found in measures of overall citizen opinion regarding the state’s progress toward its vision. The average proportion of respondents indicating that Kentucky is losing ground on each of the 26 goals declined from approximately 25 and 26 percent in survey years 1998 and 2000, respectively, to a low of 19 percent for 2002 (see Figure 1). This positive shift away from “losing ground” territory was split between the other two choices, leading to moderate changes in these measures. The average proportion of Kentuckians who feel the state is “standing still” increased from 37 to 38 to 41 percent in 1998, 2000, and 2002, respectively. On average, approximately 39 percent of Kentuckians see the state as progressing toward all 26 goals in 2002, compared with 36 percent in 2000, and 38 percent in 1998.
Figure 1: Citizen Assessment of Kentucky's Overall Progress, 2002
As in years past, the Center asked citizens to list the three goals they consider most important to Kentucky’s future. We found that the priorities of Kentuckians changed somewhat in the wake of September 11. In general, goals addressing more immediately felt issues, such as those regarding family, community, health care, and education, ranked relatively highly. The more remote the issue from the immediate well-being of family and community, such as the global economy or arts opportunities, the lower its current level of importance in the eyes of Kentuckians.
Citizens elevated Goal 1—safe and caring communities—from its position as the third most important goal in 2000 and second in 1998 to the most important goal for the future in 2002. Goal 2—responsibility for family success—made its way into the top three most important goals for the first time since the Center began the survey. While citizens cited Goal 4—accessible, quality health care—as the most important goal for the future in 2000, it came in third in 2002, close behind Goal 2. For the first time, Goal 7—an excellent system of lifelong learning—slipped out of the top three to fourth place, perhaps reflecting a waning of urgency as education reforms take hold. The least important goals cover an array of topics. Goal 12—arts opportunities—garners the lowest score, preceded by participation in a global economy, environmental awareness, and development of an entrepreneurial economy.
The rankings of each goal based on the importance citizens assign to them and their assessment of how well Kentucky is progressing toward their realization reveals how citizen opinion has changed over the period during which these surveys were conducted. Table 1 presents the top 3 goals ranked by progress and the top 3 goals ranked by importance in 2002. Comparison of the rankings for these goals shows the issues about which citizen opinion has changed and stayed the same over the years. On a positive note, the most important goal in 2002, Goal 1—safe and caring communities—has also climbed the ranks in perceived progress, increasing from 17th in 1998 to 5th in 2002.
The shift in priorities is most apparent by the climb that Goal 2—responsibility for family success—made as it moved from the 13th most important goal in 2000 to 2nd most important in 2002. The goal’s ascendancy is likely linked to a number of factors, including the aging of the population and the increased caregiving responsibilities it is creating for many families, the implications of welfare reform, the widely felt consequences of family disintegration, and the volume of political rhetoric dedicated to these and other related topics.
Similarities in attitudes over the years can be seen mostly in those goals that lie at the extremes of the two rankings. That is, Goal 12—arts opportunities—has consistently ranked 26th in importance, while remaining at or near the top in perceived progress. Goal 4—accessible, quality health care—consistently ranks last in perceived progress, but at or near the top in importance.
The goals and benchmarks for measuring them are reflections of the hopes and dreams of Kentuckians expressed in a vision statement developed by the Center in response to public input and review. Specifically, the citizen vision for the future is one of “vibrant, nurturing communities, lifelong, quality educational opportunities, a sustainable, prosperous economy, a clean, beautiful environment, and honest, participatory government at all levels.”
First launched in 1994, the Visioning Kentucky’s Future project sought broad citizen input into the development of a vision for the future of the state. A vision statement was shaped based upon citizen comments at 15 public forums held around the state and numerous mailings that sought public comment on various drafts. From the vision statement, the Center’s Board of Directors developed a series of goals that were subject to review by agencies throughout state government. The goals and measures or benchmarks used to assess progress toward their realization were subjected to similar levels of public scrutiny and evaluation in mailings and in discussions at the Center’s 1995 Conference.
The measurements presented in the report include data collected from participating state agencies and general population surveys conducted by the University of Kentucky (UK) Survey Research Center, as well as Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. They cover a range of topics and demonstrate how well Kentucky has fared over time and relative to the nation or surrounding states. Based on the themes of the vision statement, new data in the report cover an array of issues such as school safety, social capital, poverty, Internet access, entrepreneurism, appointments to boards and commissions, access to health insurance, and many more.
The 1998, 2000, and 2002 public opinion surveys were conducted by the UK Survey Research Center. For the 2002 survey, surveys were mailed between August and October 2001; 773 eligible responses were received. The overall rankings of goals were generated by assigning numerical values to the responses. For each goal that citizens said the state is “making progress,” a +1 was assigned; for those goals that citizens said the state is “losing ground,” a value of –1 was assigned. No value was assigned to “standing still” responses. To evaluate overall importance, the goals that citizens ranked as most important were assigned a value of 3 points while the second- and third- ranked goals were assigned values of 2 points and 1 point, respectively.
Copies of the report are available from the Center free of charge while supplies last. To obtain your copy, write, phone, fax, or e-mail the Center. The full report is also available electronically.