From Foresight, Vol. 11, No. 2
published 2004
What can Kentucky do to leapfrog ahead…to build lasting prosperity for all its citizens…to put per capita income above the national average for the first time ever? Policymakers, educators, entrepreneurs, business and labor leaders, and interested citizens will discuss and gather ideas on all the development pieces at the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center’s 11th annual conference, Getting Ahead of the Curve: A Working Conference to Generate Ideas, Innovations, and an Agenda for Future Prosperity, on Tuesday, November 16, 2004, at the Lexington Convention Center.
The old adage, “Keep doing what you’re doing, and you’ll keep getting what you got,” comes to mind when looking at Kentucky’s economic past and thinking about its future. To be sure, our state has made huge gains over the years, but so have many other states. Consequently, our national ranking in per capita personal income, a commonly used indicator of economic well-being, has languished for the past 34 years at around 42nd place. In 1969, Kentucky was well ahead of Alabama, tied with Tennessee, and just behind North Carolina. By 2002, Alabama had caught us while Tennessee and North Carolina surged ahead (see Figure 1). And during this same period, we actually fell three notches, from 42nd to 45th, in the national ranking of per capita net earnings, which is arguably a better indicator of a state’s economic vibrancy (see Figure 2). If we were only competing against Arkansas, Mississippi, Montana, West Virginia, and New Mexico, the five states we lead, we would be just fine. But we’re not just competing against a handful of economically anemic states, we’re competing in a global economy that continues to evolve and present new challenges.
Figure 1: Per Capita Personal Income as a Percentage of the U.S. Average, 1969-2002
Figure 2: Kentucky Per Capita Net Earnings as a Percentage of the U.S. Average
The seven Kentucky counties that anchor the three vertices of the “urban triangle” are the only ones currently above the national average for per capita net earnings (see Map).(1) The challenge in front of us is to broaden the base of prosperity. However, the entrenched poverty in many counties makes this challenge exceedingly difficult. Of the 30 counties in the bottom quartile in 2002, 24 were in the bottom quartile 35 years ago in 1969. Obviously, there are systemic, deep-seated development hurdles in these counties. In a substantially rural state like Kentucky, rural development policy demands attention (see the article by Mark Drabenstott, “A New Map for Rural America’s New Economic Frontier,” in this issue of Foresight). However, our urban centers cannot afford to embrace their relative prosperity to the exclusion of entrepreneurial enhancement, market expansion, infrastructure development, workforce improvement and continuous innovation. In this globally competitive economy, the window of economic opportunity can open quickly and shut suddenly.
Map: Kentucky Per Capita Net Earnings
This conference is designed to collect ideas, suggestions, recommendations, and options with the goal of building a “to do list” for a more prosperous future. In addition to the morning plenary sessions, which will focus on a broad range of future economic development issues, the eight afternoon breakout sessions will focus on the building blocks of economic development: transportation, information technology, workforce development, entrepreneurism, innovation, taxes and regulation, environment, and community-level development. We will solicit ideas from conferees during these sessions on “getting ahead of the curve.”
Tell us what you think. What goes on your “to do list” if we are to get ahead of the curve and build broad-based future prosperity? Go to our Web site and tell us your ideas for action http://www.kltprc.net/conference2004.htm, and then join us on November 16 for this exciting and important event. The information garnered from this day-long conference will be used for a planned white paper, representing the ideas for constructing and maintaining broad-based future prosperity.
* Mr. Childress is the Executive Director of the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center. Return to text.
1 The seven counties are Boone, Kenton, Jefferson, Oldham, Fayette, Scott, and Woodford. We did not include Hickman, even though BEA reports a per capita net earnings total that exceeds the national average. Based on input from officials familiar with the Hickman County economy, there is reason to believe that some sort of sampling error has taken place. Return to text.