By Michael T. Childress
From Foresight, No. 47
published 2006
As a result of a growing Hispanic population, Kentucky’s high school graduating class in 2018 is likely to be 8 percent Hispanic—a significant increase from the 1 percent in 2005. However, the 8 percent estimate is substantially lower than the 24 percent widely reported following the June 2006 release of a study by the Southern Regional Education Board (SREB), which featured data from the Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education (WICHE).
The SREB report, Goals for Education: Challenge to Lead, included projections of high school graduates by race and ethnicity that were originally published in a 2003 WICHE report, Knocking at the College Door. When Goals for Education was released in June, state education officials expressed surprise and alarm over the projected rapid increase of Kentucky’s Hispanic high school graduates to 24 percent in 2018. However, the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center determined that some of the data used by WICHE was incorrect, which resulted in the inflated number of Hispanics for 2018.
Using the same estimating technique as WICHE, the cohort-survival ratio method, but with the most recent enrollment data for Kentucky’s public schools, the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center estimates that Hispanic graduates will comprise 8 percent of the graduating class in 2018, up from 0.4 percent in 1994 and 1.1 percent in 2005.
Figure 1: Kentucky High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity
Kentucky’s schools should be well prepared for this large increase in Hispanic students and graduates since the majority continue to be concentrated in a handful of districts. The Center found that in 2005 nearly two thirds (65 percent) of all Hispanic students were concentrated in just 10 of Kentucky’s 176 school districts: Jefferson, Fayette, Shelby, Boone, Hardin, Warren, Bowling Green Independent, Mayfield, Oldham, and Christian. With only one exception (McCracken instead of Mayfield), these same districts accounted for 59 percent of all Hispanic students in 1997.
Table 1: Hispanic Students in Kentucky's Public Schools, by District
If this trend toward concentration continues, it suggests that the districts with the most Hispanic students in the past are likely to be the districts that experience future growth. This could bode well for the state’s ability to deal effectively with a relatively rapid increase in the Hispanic student population.
Mr. Childress is the Executive Director of the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center.